opinioNATEd Sportz

In this segment, you’ll see a focus on a buy, sell, and hold player for fantasy baseball. The “buy” player is one whose progress you should be buying into, the “sell” is a player who has seen his best days and is destined for a downturn, and the “hold” is for a player whose current trends match pretty evenly with fantasy market value. Enjoy, and as always, feel free to offer your own thoughts by posting a comment.

BUY

Ricky Romero - Blue Jays SP

Everyone knows about the Jays dominant #1 starter Roy Halladay, but the less heralded third man in in Toronto’s rotation has quietly been producing outstanding numbers. Over his last 6 starts Ricky Romero has accumulated a 4-1 record with a 1.91 ERA and 40 strikeouts over 42.1 innings. His most dominant outings were his most recent, which were against the formidable lineups of the Rays and Phillies. During that 2 game span, Romero has 14 Ks, no earned runs over 15 innings, and a 0.67 WHIP. While it may be unrealistic to expect Ricky to stay this white-hot, he clearly is able to produce against quality opponents and he has shown his ability to consistently pitch 7 innings, which is particularly useful while Toronto closers B.J. Ryan and Scott Downs have been battling injuries.

SELL

Juan Pierre - Dodgers OF

After a red-hot start in which he batted over .400, Pierre has only managed to hit .264 over the last 30 days. He is still stealing bases at a healthy clip – the 11 bases he has stolen in the last month ranks behind only Jacoby Ellsbury and B.J. Upton – but the batting slide along with his complete lack of power makes him a single-category guy. Add to that the fact that Manny Ramirez returns this Friday, and manager Joe Torre has made it clear that Pierre will once again be assuming a backup and spot-start role. A trade would normally seem imminent, but Pierre’s advanced age and hefty price tag (over $20 million for the next 2 years) make him a bit less attractive to any potential suitors.  Pierre seems doomed to fantasy obscurity, only a month after he pleasantly surprised owners with his monster May performance.

HOLD

Tommy Hanson - Braves SP

Any time a rookie can hold the Yankees and Red Sox scoreless in consecutive starts, it’s worth a closer look. Even pitching behind a lineup that is notorious for its low run production, Hanson has led the Braves to victory in all 5 of his first major league appearances so far (though he received a no decision is his first start). He hasn’t show the ridiculous strikeout potential he flashed in AAA earlier in the season (90 Ks in 66.1 innings), but that should pick up as he becomes more confident against big league bats. There has to be a small concern for his ability to win consistently, as he has yet to go more than 6 innings and Atlanta’s bullpen is shaky at best, but this is clearly a man with a talent for getting batters out. The peripheral numbers (ERA, WHIP, BB:K ratio) are all at least acceptable now and should improve as the season progresses.

Every year the fans vote for their favorite players, most of which are having good seasons at the time, to take part in baseball’s All-Star game. This year, Fantasy Baseball gets its own roster of the more deserving players, 5 stat-wise anyway. It’s important to note that this isn’t a prediction about which players will perform best in the future, or an evaluation of talent – this is merely the objective best Fantasy Baseball performers based on a standard 5×5 category scoring system. The two most difficult calls were at the catcher position, where Bengie Molina (Giants) and Victor Martinez (Indians) almost had the numbers to usurp the first-half champs named below. The stats listed after each position player are runs, home runs, RBI, stolen bases, and batting average, and for pitchers it’s wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. Feel free to respond with your own write-in opinions, but be warned any comment with support for Jimmy Rollins or Alfonso Soriano will be immediately dismissed.

Batters - (R-HR-RBI-SB-BA)  Pitchers - (W-S-K-ERA-WHIP)

National League

C – Brian McCann, Braves (22 8 31 3 .308)

1B – Albert Pujols, Cardinals (61 30 77   9 .332)

2B - Chase Utley, Phillies (53  17  52   7  .304)

3B – Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks (50 21 56 13 .274)

SS – Hanley Ramirez, Marlins (49 13 56 12 .341)

OF – Ryan Braun, Brewers (56 16 67 6 .327)

OF – Raul Ibanez, Phillies (51 22 59 4 .312)

OF – Justin Upton, Diamondbacks (49 14 45 10 .320)

SP – Dan Haren, Diamondbacks (7 0 113 2.19 0.81)

SP – Tim Lincecum, Giants (8 0 132 2.37 1.0)

RP – Jonathon Broxton, Dodgers (6 18 60 2.21 0.79)

American League

C – Joe Mauer, Twins (43 14 43 1 .383)

1B – Justin Morneau, Twins (54 19 64 0 .313)

2B – Ian Kinsler, Rangers (55 19 51 16 .267)

3B – Evan Longoria, Rays (45 16 63 2 .301)

SS – Jason Bartlett, Rays (43 7 36 17 .366)

OF – Carl Crawford, Rays ( 55 8 38 40 .321)

OF – Torii Hunter, Angels (50 17 57 12 .306)

OF – Jason Bay, Red Sox (50 19 69 5 .267)

SP - Zack Greinke, Royals (10 0 114 1.95 1.02)

SP – Roy Halladay, Blue Jays (10 0 95 2.56 1.05)

RP – Joe Nathan, Twins (1 20 39 1.45 0.77)

Carolina Panthers

On paper, the Panthers did everything they hoped to do this offseason, mostly because their wants basically boiled down to 2 things: resigning DE Julius Peppers and OT Jordan Gross. They signed Gross to a long term deal, leaving them free to place the franchise tag on Peppers – a decision he has been extremely displeased with, prompting him to recently request being traded. The Panthers have to hope that his extremely high price tag will dissuade potential suitors long enough for Peppers to simply let the issue go, because they would certainly reel from the loss of their franchise’s all time sack and forced fumble leader. With virtually no free agent acquisitions and no draft picks before the end of the 2^nd round, Carolina has nowhere to go but down unless they either smooth things over with Peppers or are somehow able to get some extreme value in a potential trade scenario. The Panthers had the 2^nd best record in the NFC last season and were only a game away from the NFC championship, but questions were certainly raised about aging QB Jake Delhomme in his ridiculous 6 turnover loss to Arizona in the playoffs. I know they’ll have a competitive team again next year, so you could argue that they didn’t need to do too much this offseason, but you can’t argue that they made big splashes in what they have to hope was a very unnecessary free agency period.

Atlanta Falcons

Last year’s most exciting comeback story still had a bit to accomplish this offseason, particularly after losing 2 of 3 starting linebackers to free agency (Michael Boley and Keith Brooking). Thus far, Atlanta has found only one pre-draft solution, veteran linebacker Mike Peterson. Peterson is a former Pro Bowler who was once one of the top linebackers in the NFL, but his production in Jacksonville has been on the decline for the last three years. A lot of that has to do with a notorious feud with Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio, so he and Atlanta have to be optimistic about a change of scenery returning him to old form. At the very least, he has a lot to teach last year’s rookie standout Curtis Loftin, as well as whatever rookie they are likely to draft to fill the weakside gap. Look for Atlanta to draft USC’s Brian Cushing or Ohio State’s James Laurinaitis, assuming none of the higher prospects fall through to the 24^th overall pick.

New Orleans Saints

Apart from an amusing campaign from Drew Brees to trade for former teammate LaDanian Tomlinson, the Saints have largely enjoyed a stay-put approach to free agency this year. New Orleans re-signed several of their big name players who were thinking of leaving for greener pastures, including LB Jonathon Vilma, WR Devery Henderson, and T Jon Stinchcomb. Their lone acquisition was former Buffalo CB Jabari Greer, who was considered along with Bryant McFadden to be at the top of a relatively weak free agent cornerback class. Much like Atlanta’s signing of Peterson, this move won’t receive a lot of fanfare from the press, but it also was a key piece of veteran leadership in the weakest facet of their defensive game. Now they can turn their draft attention to defensive line depth, safety or RB (if they believe Mike Bell isn’t an adequate replacement for the departed Deuce McAllister. I think the more likely scenario is to address the RB concern with a 2^nd or 3^rd round pick, so look for them to snap up Ohio State’s Malcolm Jenkins (CB/S) or Mississippi’s Peria Jerry (DT) with the 14^th overall pick, assuming top DEs Aaron Maybin (Penn State) and Robert Ayers (Tennessee) are already off the board.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs made headlines with a proposed 3-way deal that would have sent Matt Cassel to Denver, draft picks to New England, and Jay Cutler to the Bay. They have to be a little disappointed that the deal fell through, as Cutler would have been a solution to the biggest problem Tampa has almost every year – shaky QB play. They still have their ear to the ground now that Cutler has requested a trade, and after cutting veteran Jeff Garcia they have to be considered frontrunners for a trade should the Denver front office make Cutler available. Regardless, new coach Raheem Morris has already made strides by adding RB Derrick Ward, TE Kellen Winslow, and K Mike Nugent, while cutting old Tampa staples (who have lost several steps with advanced age) Warrick Dunn, Derrick Brooks, and Joey Galloway. Morris’ message is clear – this is a new Tampa Bay, and it’s going to be done his way. If no deal can be done for Cutler, I expect the Bucs to take a long look at Kansas State QB Josh Freeman with the 19^th overall pick, or possibly work for a trade up to land USC’s Mark Sanchez. If they do get Cutler, expect them to address DT with their first pick, possibly Mississippi’s Peria Jerry or Missouri’s Evander Hood.

In the upcoming shakedown segments, I’ll be taking a look at the various moves each team has made thus far in the offseason. Some have improved, some have weakened significantly, and some have opened the door for more possibilities via the draft and player development. You’ll get the full opinioNATEd truth for every team, starting with the NFC. Enjoy!

Philadelphia Eagles

After all the talk about potentially acquiring T.J. Houshmandzadeh, the Eagles were only able to ink backup safety Sean Jones and versatile o-lineman Stacy Andrews. Not exactly a huge haul, but then Philly was just a few quarters away from representing the NFC in the Super Bowl last year, so I suppose they feel they are more or less set as is. One person who can’t be too happy is QB Donovan McNabb, who has been lobbying for a #1 receiver ever since he ran T.O. out of town – but then, how would we really know it was McNabb if he wasn’t unhappy about something? It seems like Philadelphia is always projected to snag a WR in the 1^st round of the draft, but I don’t think there are any receivers in this year’s class who seem like the answer for their offensive scheme. The losses of perennial Pro-Bowlers S Brian Dawkins and T Tre Thomas really throw into focus how little Philly accomplished this offseason, even though there’s plenty of time left before the season starts.  They’ll draft well – Andy Reid always does – but it’s hard not to feel like there’s more that could have been done to push this team into greatness.

Dallas Cowboys

Speaking of running T.O. out of town, owner Jerry Jones finally decided it was time for him to do the same. After all the chemistry meltdowns last season that contributed to the Cowboys missing the playoffs, Tony Romo will now be throwing predominantly to Jason Witten and Roy Williams. Williams did poorly in his brief stint in Dallas last season, but expect an improvement as he gets to learn the playbook in training camp this go-round – remember, he made some eye-opening plays in Detroit, which is no small feat (no matter how easy Calvin Johnson makes it look each week). The addition of former Falcon Keith Brooking shouldn’t add much to their underperforming defense, and the Williams deal leaves their draft prospects thin (no 1^st, 3^rd, or 6^th round picks), but I believe that their addition by subtraction was as significant an upgrade as their offense could have made. Look for the offense to shine like everyone thought it would last year, and Jon Kitna will provide a much better backup than Brad Johnson.

Washington Redskins

In what has become an annual display of money and showmanship, owner Dan Snyder has once again produced what is easily the most impressive haul of the free agent period with DT Albert Haynesworth, CB DeAngelo Hall, and G Derrick Dockery. The defense naturally receives a slight boost (even with the loss of veterans Jason Taylor, Marcus Washington, and Shawn Springs), but the lack of pure pass rusher to complement the presence of Haynesworth makes me think that they’re looking for one in the draft, perhaps Tennessee’s Robert Ayers or Penn State’s Aaron Maybin. The problem with that is that it was their offense, not their defense, which kept them out of the playoffs last year. Santana Moss and Clinton Portis simply can’t do it on their own, and I don’t see any of their existing talent developing quickly enough to keep the Skins competitive in the ultra-tough NFC East. As of right now, I look for next year to produce similar results for Washington – a solid record, but a game or two shy of playoff contention – and that hardly seems worth the hefty new paychecks.

New York Giants

News from New York has been a little quiet considering how much has been going on. First off, the G-Men took care of some housekeeping by resigning Brandon Jacobs, which was huge considering the loss of backfield partner Derrick Ward (the Wind of the Giants vaunted Earth, Wind and Fire). Just as importantly, the Giants compensated for the loss of defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo by signing DE Chris Canty, DT Rocky Bernard, and LB Michael Boley despite not losing any of their key starters (not to mention regaining the services of Pro-Bowl DE Osi Umenyiora). New coordinator Bill Sheridan will have plenty of options as he works with what was already one of the most formidable front sevens in the NFL. I would think the biggest draft need has to be WR, where the Giants have to hope that Hakeem Nix, Percy Harvin, or Jeremy Maclin falls all the way to the 29^th overall pick. Regardless, the Giants enter the draft as the favorites to win this celebrated division next year, baring a season-ending injury to Manning or Jacobs.

With only two weeks left, it’s time for the first annual opinioNATEd not-quite-postseason awards.  While some contenders, (such as Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning) still have important games that could be used to measure this season’s greatness, others (such as Drew Brees and Kurt Warner) already have their postseason set up, so I’m not convinced these will change in the next two weeks.  I’ll check back on these in the upcoming weeks, but I’m confident my recipients will be equally deserving after week 17.  Enjoy!

Most Valuable Player

In choosing this award, it’s always important to qualify what MVP really means in this context.  For me, it means the person who is most integral to his team’s success.  So first, the team has to be successful, which rules out Drew Brees and Clinton Portis.  Second, the player has to be an essential part of his team’s success, which rules out Kurt Warner and any Titan.  I think that the three finalists for MVP this year are Michael Turner, Adrian Peterson, and Peyton Manning.  Frankly, based on previous years, statistics are a bit lacking for everyone (other than Brees and Warner), so I think the nod has to go to the leadership.  The Colts began the year 3-4 in the same division as a team that was 7-0 at the time, but they have since reeled off an NFL best 8 straight victories and clinched a playoff spot.  Running back Joseph Addai and defensive captain Bob Sanders have been battling injuries all year, so there has been no question who has been in the spotlight in Indy during this crazy stretch.  More than that, I don’t know many experts or colleagues who ever truly thought that the Colts would miss the playoffs despite their early season plight.  Everyone knows that when Peyton Manning really needs to win games, he does.  When you expect greatness out of someone in any circumstance and they always deliver, that sounds like an MVP performance to me.

Rookie of the Year

This year has shown us one of the better rookie classes of all time.  Three of the top eight running backs in the NFL are all rookies (Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, and Steve Slayton), as are two playoff-hopeful quarterbacks for franchises that were less than exciting last year (Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco) and the NFL’s fourth leading tackler (Jerod Mayo).  I can’t recall a year when so many rookies became league leaders, even though only one was recognized as a Pro Bowl selection (Johnson).  For me, Forte’s ridiculous consistency as a feature back (100 yards and/or a touchdown in every game except one) gives him the edge among his fellow rookie backs, and he gets my vote for RoY runner-up.  The award itself has to go to the man who re-shaped a franchise that many labeled as dying, and commanded the leadership of an unfocused squad who he may carry to the playoffs - Matt Ryan.  While he certainly has a strong arm that can be seen from his 3000+ yards in his first season, perhaps more impressive is a much smaller number - 10.  That’s the number of turnovers Ryan has on his hands all year (9 interceptions and one fumble lost), which has been absolutely critical in the development of the once-flailing Atlanta defense.  If Ryan’s Falcons can upset the Vikings in Minnesota this week, a victory against St. Louis should follow and Atlanta may be back in the postseason - but even if they lose both games, the change that Ryan has brought to Atlanta has earned him Rookie of the Year honors.

Defensive Player of the Year

Demarcus Ware leads the NFL in sacks with 19, only 3.5 shy of the NFL season-season record set by Michael Strahan.  Nick Collins and Ed Reed have both scored 3 defensive touchdowns, which is more than many defenders get in their entire careers.  All are impressive feats, but each of those players is a specialist - they’re only good at pass rushing or ball-hawking, respectively.  For my DPoY, I want a player who does it all on defense and leads his team to defensive greatness.  Tampa Bay’s Barrett Ruud, Baltimore’s Ray Lewis, and Pittsburgh’s Troy Polamalu all received serious consideration, but in the end the award goes to Carolina’s Jon Beason.  Beason leads all linebackers with 3 interceptions and is 2nd in the NFL with 122 tackles.  He is the centerpiece of a Carolina unit that ranks 6th in yards allowed and 5th in points allowed, with an excellent balance of run and pass defense.  Beason is only in his second year, but his leadership has commanded the respect of a veteran unit that has coalesced into one of the premier defenses in the NFL.

In the spirit of the playoff season, this week I’ll only be calling games with direct playoff implications. There’s quite a few to choose from, and we saw a good start to the week with Chicago ending New Orleans’ chances. Who else will see their proverbial playoff shadow and enjoy a few extra weeks of winter this year, and who will bury themselves back in the ground in shame? It always makes for some gutsy calls when good teams clash, so read on to find out.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) at Atlanta Falcons

It’s a little sad that in spite of Atlanta’s miracle season, the game that may have sealed their fate was one they didn’t even take part in, last Monday’s contest between Carolina and Tampa Bay. Despite being one of the premier teams in the NFL, the Bucs are a very beatable team – if you can do what Carolina did last week. The problem is that I believe that they are too good to let that happen two weeks in a row, and Monte Kiffin will have his defense practicing their run stopping techniques all week long. I know Matt Ryan has developed quickly, but the Tampa secondary has fooled much more advanced quarterbacks on a weekly basis, and if Michal Turner can’t get the ground game going I don’t see how the Falcons will be able to keep up this week. Here’s an interesting statistic: the teams of the NFC South are a combined 24-2 at home this year, so betting against the home team is a risky proposition, but the Bucs have too much veteran leadership to tank two key divisional games in a row, even if they are both on the road.

Pick: Tampa Bay

Denver Broncos (+7.5) at Carolina Panthers

Denver can clinch the AFC West with either a win or a Charger loss this week, while the Panthers would need a win and a Buccaneer loss to clinch a playoff berth. More interestingly, the Panthers have gotten to a point where their playoff destiny is in their own hands – if they win their remaining three games, they will be the top NFC seed. I believe this will have them motivated, and while it’s a tough stretch of games (Denver, at New York Giants, at New Orleans), John Fox should be able to at least keep them in a competitive position going into next week’s match up. Denver just placed their fifth different running back on injured reserve this last week, and while they haven’t needed a strong ground game to win this year, it would have been nice to add some balance to an attack against one the NFL’s best secondaries. All that being said, it’s tough to beat a playoff team by more than a touchdown in the late season stretch, and I think that spread-wise this is a trap game for the Panthers, in between two much more important games. They’ll probably win, as I explained above, but the spread will make the Broncos take something positive home this week.

Pick: Denver

New York Giants (+3) at Dallas Cowboys

Two NFC East heavyweights limp to the ring this week, having lost to entire state of Pennsylvania between the two of them last week. The Giants clinched the division last week even in their demise, but they temporarily lost the services of their top running back, Brandon Jacobs, to complement the loss of their top receiver, Plaxico Burress. I know the Giants have been resilient with their sustained losses throughout the year, but at some point you need your best players to win the big games. I think Plax being gone for the year destroys any shot of winning another ring, andas long as Jacobs stays out they’ll have a hard time getting victories at all. On the other side of the field, don’t let their play against the nation’s best defense (Pittsburgh) last week fool you, this Dallas team has all the makings of a team resembling last year’s Giants or the Steelers who won the championship a few years back – they’re recovering from injuries and gelling offensively at exactly the right time, effectively starting the playoffs a few weeks early because of the importance of each game and the quality of their opponents. It’s a tough road (after this week, they face Baltimore and then travel to Philadelphia), but I think they start the trek off right with a prime time home victory this week.

Pick: Dallas

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) at Baltimore Ravens

This is a game I’ve been looking forward to for weeks. The Ravens are hungry for a chance to prove that they are a legitimate contender amongst the AFC elite, and the Steelers try to secure a first round bye in the playoffs. Not surprisingly, these teams rank 1 and 2 in the NFL in team defense, but perhaps it is a bit shocking to see that while the Ravens are fifth in rushing yards, the Steelers don’t rank in the top 20 in any offensive category. The Ravens are the hottest team in all of football at the moment, having won 7 of their last 8 games, with their only loss coming to the New York Giants. While the defense has of course played a major roll in their success, the Cam Cameron led offense has scored 24 or more points in all of their victories during that stretch, which has led to some pretty convincing victories against playoff hopeful  teams. With that in mind, consider that while the Steelers are 10-3, they are 1-2 when their opponent scores more than 20 points. Baltimore barely got edged out when these teams met earlier in Pittsburgh, and I look for it to come full circle as the Ravens narrowly beat the Steelers in Baltimore this week.

Pick: Baltimore

Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Arizona Cardinals

Two NFC division leaders meet in this clash off opposing play styles – Minnesota’s grinding running offense and hard nosed defense, and Arizona’s potentially record-breaking passing attack. It’s a sad twist of fate that while they sport identical records, the Cardinals have clinched their division and the Vikings won’t be leading their division or even the wild card race if they lose this week. The Vikings learned this week that due to a federal ruling, their twin defensive tackle Williams’ will play all season and postseason, but they won’t get much of a workout this week against a team that ranks last in the NFL in rushing because they average over 300 passing yards per game. All of Arizona’s losses this year have been to other high octane offices that could keep up with the Cardinal’s desert shootouts, and the Vikings will be struggling with proven loser Travaris Jackson back at the helm this week. Adrian Peterson will have a solid game, but it won’t be enough to keep up with Kurt Warner and his trio of talented receivers.

Pick: Arizona

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+3)

In the past four weeks, the Titans have played three of the worst seven teams in football, and the one decent opponent they faced (Jets) ended their hopes of going undefeated. Additionally, they’ve now clinched their division and can clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs with one more win or a Steeler loss. Their Pro Bowl defensive end is out for the game, and two other key defenders (Courtland Finnegan and Albert Haynesworth) missed practice with injuries this week. I believe it’s not unreasonable to say that the Titans are as vulnerable as a one loss team has ever been. Enter the Texans, fresh off an offensive effort against a top Green Bay defense that included 400+ yards for Matt Schaub and 120 rushing yards for Steve Slayton. It’s a slim chance, but the Texans still have an outside shot at playoff contention, and I believe that will give them the motivation to edge out the complacent champs at home this week.

Pick: Houston

Last Week: 4-2

Overall: 24-18-1

As the first few teams begin to clinch playoff births, it’s time once again to rank the NFL teams according to momentum and current strength.  Think of it as ranking the teams in order of who I’d least like to play against next Sunday, all else being equal.  Enjoy!

1. Tennessee Titans - Already clinched their division, they can clinch 1st seed in AFC with a win and a Steelers loss next week

2. Pittsburgh Steelers - Week after week they prove themselves against playoff teams, this week will be a strong test against Baltimore

3. Indianapolis Colts - Peyton Manning has decided he’s tired of taking a backseat to brother Eli, and a motivated Manning is a scary thing

4. Carolina Panthers - Running game is off the charts, and there’s always the threat of Steve Smith

5. New York Giants - Off the field issues have finally slowed them down, no Plax will make it tough to win in the playoffs

6. Baltimore Ravens - Ed Reed and Ray Lewis have this defense looking in championship form, I still think they’ll overtake the Steelers by the end of the year

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Last week’s Monday night game aside, this defense has been surprisingly good, and Cadillac is out of the repair shop for the first time in a while

8. New York Jets - Less consistant than they’d like to be, but there’s still explosive offensive potential and the run defense is solid - and they have two cushy games (Bills and Seahawks) to regain form before the game that controls their playoff destiny (vs. Miami)

9. Miami Dolphins - What a difference Bill Parcells has made in Miami.  Chad Pennington has found his perfect fit, and Miami may be playoff bound

10. Philadelphia Eagles - Brian Westbrook has finally gotten back on track, and the defense has proven their mettle the last few weeks

11. Denver Broncos - 5 RBs on injured reserve now, but at least Champ Bailey should be healthy by playoff time

12. Dallas Cowboys - You can put whatever recievers or backs around him you want, but at the end of the day Tony Romo is not a winner in the games that matter

13. Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan is every bit the leader Atlanta needed, and if they miss the playoffs this year, I’d watch out for next year

14. New England Patriots - It’s incredible that they’re still at this point with all the losses they’ve sustained this year, but their luck is starting to run out

15. Washington Redskins - Jason Campbell better get his act together if this team has any playoff aspirations

16. Minnesota Vikings - This team will be scary after they get a QB this offseason, Adrian Peterson has overtaken LT as the NFL’s top running back

17. Chicago Bears  - The Bears will overtake the Vikings as the year winds down, Matt Forte deserves offensive rookie of the year

18. Arizona Cardinals - The Cards clinched the NFC West last week, which is the equivalent of getting the Big East BCS berth, but hey, at least they get a playoff game

19. Houston Texans - Steve Slayton has been a pleasant surprise, but the defense has backslid significantly from last year

20. New Orleans Saints - Drew Brees is the best QB to watch every week, and Reggie Bush is developing into a real running back

21. Green Bay Packers - Ryan Grant isn’t the same back that helped the Packers win when it mattered last year, but Aaron Rodgers will get all the blame

22. San Fracisco 49ers - It seems odd to have the Niners ahead of the Chargers, but at least Singletary is getting the Ws

23. San Diego Chargers - Norv Turner and his offensive coordinater should be shot for wasting LT on the terrible Charger spread offense

24. Buffalo Bills - 2-7 now following a 4-0 start, the only team not competing in ultra-tight AFC East

25. Jacksonville Jaguars - Suspension of WR Matt Jones won’t help their laughable offense, slightly behind the Chargers in terms of huge dissapointments this year

26. Cleveland Browns - After all the Quinn/Anderson fuss, how well do you think Ken Dorsey can do?

27. Oakland Raiders - One day, Raider football will matter again - but it won’t be a day this year

28. Seattle Seahawks - Every year, there’s a team who hits the right combination of factors to have an atrocious season even with talent - the Seahawks lost that particular bet this year

29. Kansas City Chiefs - Their offense is starting to gel under Tyler Thigpen and Larry Johnson, but the defense is one of the worst in the NFL

30. St. Louis Rams - Too many old men to stay competetive on offense, they need a complete overhaul this offseason

31. Cincinnati Bengals - I don’t understand how Marvin Lewis still has a job.  Besides Carson Palmer (who was a no brainer), what has he done for this god-awful franchise?

32. Detroit Lions - Matt Stafford of Graham Harrell?  They don’t have much else to think about until then, so they have plenty of time to decide

A bit of a delay in the picks this week, as well as a lack of other material, is due to my computer getting broken recently.  Never fear though, it will take more than a scratched hard drive to keep my opinioNATEd thoughts from you, the loyal reader.  Onward to the picks!

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (even spread)

If the Miami Dolphins have taught me anything this year, it’s that they can’t be counted on to beat spreads even in games that they win.  Luckily for me, there is no spread in their game this week, so I can pick them with confidence.  The Bills are so very far removed from their 5-1 start that it’s almost a little sad.  They have only won two games in the last two months, and those were both against terrible AFC West teams.  Marshawn Lynch has hit his stride again recently, averaging over 110 rushing yards over the past 3 games, but he’ll have a tough time against a well-disciplined Miami front seven that has allowed less than 100 yards per game on the season.  Buffalo is 0-3 in divisional match ups this year, and there’s no reason why they shouldn’t fall to 0-4 after tomorrow.

Pick: Miami

Dallas Cowboys (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers

It seems like both of these teams are in a marquee match up every week, and this week is no exception.  The Steelers are now the proud owners of the lowest yardage totals allowed on the season, making them once again the toughest defense in the NFL.  Bearing that in mind, here’s an interesting statistic - against the top defenses Dallas has played this year (Washington, Philly, New York, and Tampa Bay), the Cowboys have been outscored 106-117.   They may look impressive in wins against teams like San Francisco and Seattle, but when it comes time for them to prove themselves against tough opponents, they suddenly lose a bit of their luster.  This is a must-win game for both teams, as both are in for a tough stretch in December - but ultimately, I believe that the Steelers are a more dominant team, and the home crowd will cheer them to victory this Sunday.

Pick: Pittsburgh

Washington Redskins (+5) at Baltimore Ravens

If I had been able to write up a stock report this week, the Redskins would be one of the “on the fall” teams and Baltimore may have been one of the “on the rise” teams.  These two teams are the polar opposites of each other at the moment.  Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron has Joe Flacco and a 3-back system racking up the points in Baltimore, while Clinton Portis has battled injury concerns and Jason Campbell has lost the spark he showed in the early season.  As a result, the Skins have lost three of their last four, and now are in danger of missing the playoffs as they currently rank third in what is no longer the toughest division in the NFL.  The Ravens and Redskins are both both run-heavy defense-oriented teams, but the Ravens do both a bit better (Baltimore: 2nd in defense, 3rd in rushing - Washington: 6th in defense, 5th in rushing) and that should be enough to get the W at home in this low-scoring affair.

Pick: Baltimore

Houston Texans (+6) at Green Bay Packers

It’s odd to think that both of these teams are 5-7 with dim playoff prospects, particularly when both offenses are producing so well.  The Texans should be getting starter Matt Schaub back after a month of mediocre play from backup Sage Rosenfals, but after 2 years of watching them switch back and forth I’m not entirely convinced that Schaub is the better qb.  Regardless, shaking off the rust will be a bit difficult in Lambau against a defense that has returned a record number of interceptions for touchdowns already this season.  It doesn’t say much for the NFC North, but the Packers are actually still in the divisional hunt, and after consecutive tough losses to NFC South teams, Green Bay will be all too happy to play a lowly AFC team.  A loss here ends the playoff hopes for Aaron Rodgers and company, and I don’t think they’re ready to give up on the dream just yet.  Houston is the best at racking up garbage points, but I don’t think they’ll get enough to cover the spread in what should be a statement game for Green Bay.

Pick: Green Bay

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (+6)

As Tony Romo proved in last week’s Thanksgiving blowout, a capable and confident quarterback can absolutely shred the pathetic Seahawk secondary.  Matt Cassel may not be Tom Brady, but confidence is not one of the things he lacks, and he should make it rain in Seattle this week.  Randy Moss has a knack for showing up in games against soft secondaries, while disappearing in the clutch games.  Given that New England is posturing for playoff contention and the only thing Seattle is positioning for is a top draft pick, it’s hard to think of this a a clutch game.  Look for the Cassel-led Patriots to run up the score in this game that doesn’t really matter, in true USC fashion.  A side note for fantasy footballers: Deion Branch is completely healthy for the first time all year, and may have the services of Matt Hasselbeck - just in time to play the team that told him he wasn’t worth the money.  He could get some serious garbage time points this week.

Pick: New England

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (+3.5)

Picking the Jets game has gone well for me the last two weeks, even with both being major upsets (one for and one against), so I thought it would be appropriate to call their game once more.  Even so, the Jets are sort of a difficult team to read - are they the juggernauts that steamrolled the NFLs lone undefeated team or the miscreants who looked pathetic against a team that most people don’t believe deserve a playoff spot?  I believe that last week was more about Denver winning than New York losing, and the Jets (like most critics) didn’t give the Broncos enough credit going in to the game.  They won’t make the same mistake two weeks in a row, particularly against the 4-win 49ers.  Mike Singletary has clearly had a positive effect on the Niners, as evidenced by their having outscored opponents 67-54 in the last 3 weeks, but this still isn’t a team that can beat motivated division leaders, and the Jets should have no problem finding motivation after last week.

Pick: New York

Last Week:  4-2-0
Season:    20-16-1

The season is reaching its exciting climax, and a lot of talk has shifted to MVP candidates.  With all the focus on quarterbacks (Brees, Favre, Manning, Warner), I’d have to throw my two cents to Michael Turner, who leads the NFL with 13 rushing touchdowns and is currently third in rushing yards with 1088.  His dominance on the ground has eased the transition for superstar rookie Matt Ryan, and has keep the Atlanta defense fresh enough to make some plays that many people didn’t think them capable of making.  If Atlanta goes from being projected to win 4 games to making the playoffs in a surprisingly tough NFC South, don’t be surprised to hear Turner’s name more frequently amid MVP talks.  On to the picks, enjoy, and Happy Thanksgiving!

Arizona Cardinals (+3) at Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles aren’t the ones looking like birds of prey at the moment, having gone almost a full month without a single win.  Donovan McNabb was even benched in last week’s blowout in Baltimore, but luckily for him his backup, Kevin Kolb, did just as poorly as he did (both had 2 interceptions and a passer rating below 16).  It’s getting hard to remember when the Eagles were fighting to be at the top of the heap in the NFL’s toughest conference.  A Thanksgiving Day matchup with the playoff bound Cards presents the perfect opportunity for a step back in the right direction.  The Eagles sport one of the NFL’s toughest pass defenses, allowing less than 190 yards per game through the air, and the Eagles air attack should be dominant all game against a Cards defense that was decimated against the Giants last week.  Additionally, Arizona will be at a slight disadvantage having to travel coast-to-coast on a short week.  Look for McNabb to remind everyone why he’s still #1 in Philadelphia - at least for right now.

Pick: Philadelphia

Denver Broncos (+7.5) at New York Jets

Favre has the Jets on top of the world after their surprising (well, not a surprise to this expert) victory against the formerly undefeated Titans.  Kris Jenkins has put a spark in the Jets defense, as they are allowing only 78 yards per game on the ground.  Unfortunately for them, the Broncos are a team that hasn’t relied much on the ground game to get their offense going this year.  This one has all the makings of a shootout, and while Favre and Cutler will go toe to toe all game, I don’t think the Jets have enough left in the tank after two tough road wins to win a shootout by more than a touchdown.  Cutler and Brandon Marshall will be looking to rebound from season-low performances last week against Oakland, and I think they’ll find plenty of holes in an undersized secondary that has allowed almost 240 yards per game.  Look for the game to be decided in a frenzied last second scoring drive by one of the Pro Bowl hopeful QBs.

Pick: Denver

New Orleans Saints (+3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay finally finds themselves atop the NFC South, and just in time for a three game stretch against each of their divisional foes.  This week’s game is not only against the worst of the three opponents, it is also the only one the Bucs will play at home.  That makes this game more or less a must-win for them, especially since they lost to New Orleans back in week 1.  The Saints are the league’s top passing offense (averaging almost 320 yards per game), but they will find a worthy adversary in Tampa Bay’s top-notch secondary (allowing less than 175 yards per game).  Warrick Dunn has shown that he can fill in nicely as a feature back until Carnell Williams is healthy enough for a timeshare, and while the Bucs receiving corps is nothing special, they keep finding a way to win every week.  Expect them to find a way again this week, ending any real hope of the Saints contending for a playoff spot.

Pick: Tampa Bay

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) at New England Patriots

This is a gut-check game for the boys in black.  With the division rival Baltimore Ravens as hot as ever, the Steelers can’t afford a loss going into a brutal three week stretch that includes Dallas, Baltimore, and Tennessee.  Luckily for them, they’ve had a long week to prepare for this showdown in New England, having beaten the Bengals on Thursday last week.  On the other sideline, Bill Belichick has had to pull out all the stops to keep New England in contention during three straight weeks of divisional play.  It’s a little odd to think that the way each team’s season is shaping up at the moment, this game might decide who gets a wild card spot and who misses the playoffs this year.  After two straight games of 400+ yards for Matt Cassel (tying an NFL record), I think the Steelers remind everyone why he’s still a backup with their traditional crazy blitz packages and complex schemes.  Big Ben has been struggling a bit recently, but a good showing against Cincinnati and a long week of rest should be enough to get him going against a soft New England pass rush.

Pick: Pittsburgh

Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns (+7)

Less than a month after being given the starting job for the Browns, Brady Quinn is now out for the season, surrendering the reigns once again to Derek Anderson.  In case you’ve forgotten - and I’m sure Cleveland fans have tried to forget - DA has been awful this year with 8 interceptions, 8 fumbles, and 11 sacks in 8 games.  Meanwhile, the Colts have been racking up impressive wins week after week as they fight back toward playoff contention.  The Titans may still be three games ahead of the Colts in the AFC South, but the loss against the Jets last week put blood in the water, and a shark like Peyton Manning will surely look to capitalize.  This is the first game in a laughably simple tree game stretch that also includes games against the two worst teams in football, the Lions and the Bengals, so look for the Colts to get some of their fundamentals back on track.  Most notably, the running game should get more of a focus under Joseph Addai as Manning practices his keep-away style of offense against a Brown team that was unable to score a touchdown at home against Houston last week.

Pick: Indianapolis

Atlanta Falcons (+5) at San Diego Chargers

I know that the 4-7 Chargers still feel that they are an elite team that has been slighted a few too many times, but frankly I think it’s a little disrespectful to have them as a 5 point favorite over the 7-4 Falcons.  The Chargers have allowed over 100 rushing yards per game, and former Charger Michael Turner will be chomping at the bit to show his old team what he’s capable of.  The Falcon run defense is not too great either, but for whatever reason, the Chargers have decided that they’re a passing team this year.  I have to think that Ladanian Tomlinson is not quite as healthy as San Diego would have you believe, or else the coaching staff has been out in the sun for too long and has forgotten that offenses designed around LT get to the playoffs, and offenses designed around passing attacks with big posession-based recievers do not.  Look for Atlanta to continue their wave of emotion as they pull off the “upset” in SoCal this week.

Pick: Atlanta

Last Week:  5-1-0

Season:    16-14-1

I was considering writing up another Power Ranking segment this week, but then I realized that with the exception of Buffalo, New York, and maybe Arizona, it wouldn’t be changed very much. Perhaps a new stock report next week, or maybe some fantasy football rankings…feel free to comment on what you want to see more of. Enjoy!

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5)
Apart from the 0-10 Lions, no team has a longer active loss streak than the 1-9 Chiefs or the 5-5 Bills. Both teams are ice cold at the moment, and neither is in real danger of contending for postseason play. The Chiefs have been pleasantly surprised with the maturation of Tyler Thigpen, but their defense still ranks last in the NFL in yards per game allowed. The return of problem child Larry Johnson should take some pressure of the putrid defensive unit, as his power run style should lead to increased possession time as well offensive success. The Bills will be without three of their defensive starters, and their offense has lost whatever identity it was beginning to establish in the early part of the season. Somehow, defensive coordinators have figured out what to do with Marshawn Lynch and Trent Edwards, as both of the key offensive studs have spearheaded the “Remember How Much Buffalo Chokes” campaign. I’m starting to remember - and I think after they become only the 2nd team to lose the Chiefs this year, everyone else will begin to remember too.
Pick: Kansas City

New York Jets (+5) at Tennessee Titans
It’s hard to say which is the bigger surprise of these two surprisingly successful teams this year. Both find themselves division leaders late in the season, despite sharing a division with a perennial powerhouse (Titans/Colts, Jets/Patriots). The Tennessee Titanshave proven over the last few weeks that despite their heavy reliance on the ground game in early weeks, Kerry Collins’ decrepit arm is still capable of winning games. Defense is still the name of the game with most championship contenders, and neither of these teams proves an exception to that rule. New York has allowed just 81.3 rushing yards per game, while Tennessee’s defense has yielded the 6th fewest yards per game in the NFL. Basically, this game is going to come down to a quarterback making plays to win the game, and despite the media’s recent infatuation with Collins, Favre is still the best old man QB in the NFL. The Titans may be able to squeak out a victory at home, but it won’t be by more than a last minute field goal, which isn’t enough to beat the spread.
Pick: New York

New England Patriots (+1) at Miami Dolphins
You’d be hard pressed to find a better overall coaching job on the year than Bill Parcells and company in Miami. With very few personnel changes, a unit that barely squeaked out a single victory last season is still very much in their divisional race this year with a 6-4 record. And they’re hot right now, no question - only the conference-leading Giants and Titans have longer active win streaks than the Dolphins (4 games). If you’re talking about coaching winning games though, your mind has to drift to the other sideline, where Bill Belichick has made a career of harvesting unknown talent and instilling a winner’s mentality in his players. The Evil Mastermind has had a long week of practice, as the Patriots had a Thursday game last week, and he’ll also have tapes of their 31-13 loss to Miami earlier this season to learn from (and to motivate him). Not taking anything away from Miami, but when New England needs to win games, they do - and after surrendering the division lead to the Jets last week, this game has to be seen as a must-win game for them.
Pick: New England

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (+8)
The Lions are doing their best to show the NFL community why spreads exist. They’re not going to win a game any time soon, so we’re left to wonder how much they’re going to lose by. Unfortunately for them, they go up against one of the NFL’s top teams this week, with the same old spread of just over a touchdown. The only teams that have given the Bucs trouble this year are spread offenses with multiple receiving options (New Orleans, Denver, Dallas), and Detroit can barely claim to have a single option on offense. With injury concerns at running back and a developing receiving corps, Tampa is in for a brutal playoff stretch in one of the NFL’s toughest divisions. Perfect timing for them, then, to go against one of the worst teams in recent memory while their 2 biggest foes (Falcons and Panthers) duke it out in Atlanta. The Bucs need this game before 3 straight weeks of divisional play, and they should take advantage in the Motor City this Sunday.
Pick: Tampa Bay

Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens (even spread)
After an emotional loss against New York and a disgusting tie at Cincinnati last week, the Eagles have fallen almost completely out of the NFC playoff picture. Brian Westbrook is a game time decision, and Donovan McNabb doesn’t necessarily understand how football is played. What a horrible time to face the destructive Ravens defense in Baltimore, particularly when that defense is thisty for blood after being embarrassed by the World Champions in New York last week. Even with that horrendous effort last week, the Ravens rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense and 3rd in rushing yards, which has been the weakness of the Eagles aggressive defense all year long. Look for Ray Lewis to personally knock out McNabb and company’s playoff hopes, as the loss here will make even a wild card spot a little too much for Philly fans to hope for in the toughest division in the NFL.
Pick: Baltimore

Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams (+8)
If it weren’t for a two game stretch following the motivational firing of Scott Linehan/promoting of Jim Haslett, this Rams team would be drawing comparisons to the Detroit Lions. Aside from those two fluke victories, St. Louis has been outscored by their opponents 91-286, being blown out by everyone from the Giants to the 49ers. Don’t look for their situation to improve, as team focal point Steven Jackson will again be on the sidelines this week due to an thigh injury. Chicago will be clamoring to save face after their brutal 37-3 loss last week in Green Bay, and they have the tools to do so against the Rams. Expect the the Bears to ease Kyle Orton back from his injury by letting rookie-of-the-year hopeful Matt Forte go wild against a defense that allows nearly 160 rushing yards per game. The Chicago defense will likewise be looking to get back to the basics this week, and the laughable offense of the Rams should serve as excellent training dummies to help the Bears get into form before their playoff race heats up in December.
Pick: Chicago